Arcadia Discussion Zone

I'm afraid you're all too right L about the warm-cold water conveyors.

Oceanographers have been at the edge of their wits for sometime now. This isn't theory but cold hard fact.

The Gulf Stream alone is flowing at a 1/4 less rate of the strength that was present 5 years ago. Similar problems are being seen in the Humboldt current which keeps southern California temperate and in all others across the globe.

The Arctic and Antarctic krill populations are devastated from fresh melt water and the feedings grounds of large Cetaceans are direly threatened.

Most well studied projections show that the initial effects of global warming will be widely fluctuating weather patterns "at first". A chaos.

Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn8398

Thanks TCJ
What Wombat could be seeing and which is confusing is
the changes due to the conveyor slowing and eventually stopping

Seeker1 wrote:

Are you sure, Seeker? According to the data I can access, between 1995 and 2004 the number of “above normal” intensity Atlantic “hurricanes” has been the highest since 1950.


Atlantic Multidecadal Cycle 1950-2005, using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)

What seems to account for this increase? Is it Global Warming or something else? Well it seems that it has to do with the 50–70 year cycle, also known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation


Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Timeseries, 1856–2008

You can read about it here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atla ... al_cyclone

Cyclones in this region (just like droughts in Australia, rain) are not a recent phenomenon; we just read and hear more about them today because the media love catastrophes, and the alarmists love to use them dishonestly to increase the level of concern in the community. In addition, of course, the cost of damage is so much greater because there are more people living in cyclone prone areas. (But hey! Not my fault – it must be global warming, or the government for letting people build there, or Satan, or witches. So who can we burn to stop it?)


Tracks of Atlantic tropical cyclones (1851—2005).

Conclusion: IMO there does not appear to be any evidence of a significant shift in the natural cycle, notwithstanding the alarmists’ (and the media) wish to the contrary.

I have separated this cyclone thing out from my come-back on your other responses. So, if I get time over the next little bit I hope to be able to add a some more to the debate.

Regards to all

Wombat.

Great map Wombat
there are two forces going on here for the future
the slowing or stopping of the conveyor belt

and 24 hour sun on the Artic Ocean without ice on it
that part so I see the Northern Atlantic to see more possible Hurricanes in the summer

Right now Out my window is a rare appearance of snow here in Houston

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr
why is that happening because the conveyor is slowing down

L,

Very deep water far out there in the Gulf of Mexico and many aren't aware of what a complex abyss it is.
Hard to believe, but an earthquake in it's center recently broke water pipes in my house, cracked my daughters pool severely enough to cause replacement and an as costly filling of the sinkhole formed aside it too.
The same was experienced by many others locally and we're as far inland as one can get. Though not unheard of in Florida, it is rare in the extreme to feel anything come up through all the sand and water beneath us much less cause damage.

Why it happened is below and everyone was astounded. Wikipedia drops the ball again, there was minor damage reported freely here locally. Less current means more sediment precipitation would be my theory.

.

Glacier melting is causing new tectonic activity, another cold hard fact.

As Alaska glaciers melt, it's the land that is rising ....
“When you combine tectonics and glacial readjustment, you get rates that are incomprehensible.”
http://www.climatechallengeindia.org/As ... -is-rising -

Chinese earthquake could be due to Himalayan glacier-melting ...
http://www.all-creatures.org/hope/let-20080513-1.htm

Global warming - glacier reduction in Alaska
As glaciers melt they lighten the load on the Earth's crust. Tectonic plates, that are mobile pieces of the Earth's crust, can then move more freely. ...
http://www.terranature.org/glacierReduction_Alaska.htm

Wow TCJ
that is fascinating

I'm astounded on that one

But Glaciers is a great point
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8394324.stm

I'll come to that shortly, lovuian.

But before I do, just a few quick responses to Seeker.

Seeker1 says:


I can’t argue with that, except to say that the IPCC temp., increase figure has an earlier (1905) start date. However, as you know better than most of us, correlation is not the same as causation. There are many things that show the same correlation or a better correlation than oil production with the 0.74 C º +/- 0.18 C º increase in GATA from 1905 to 2005.

Here’s one for example:


Arctic surface air temperature compared with total solar irradiance as measured by sunspot cycle amplitude, sunspot cycle length, solar equatorial rotation rate, fraction of penumbral spots, and decay rate of the 11-year sunspot cycle.

And here’s another:


U.S.A. surface temperature as compared with total solar irradiance.

Graphs as cited in: Arthur B. Robinson, Noah E. Robinson, and Willie Soon.Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.
At: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm

The fundamental question that needs to be answered is: what changes drove the world’s movement into the Medieval Warm Period in the absence of major petroleum production and exploitation?

Seeker also says:


But you need to note that no studies are quoted to support the assertion that most warming over the last 50 years has been caused by greenhouse gases. The models they use are the culprits that they rely on to support this contention. The models!

These are the models about which Trenberth had this to say to Mann as recently as 12 October this year (2009):

“The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate”.
From CRU leaked email number 1255352257.txt.

Seeker says:


Can you show me the difference between this cycle and the previous natural cycle that you think we are seeing? Mann’s erroneous “Hockey-stick” graph tended to remove all previous significant natural cycles, so I’m unsure what you refer to here.

There are a couple of other matters that I propose to comment on in relation to this post of Seeker1’s. However, Mrs Wombat has a dinner party due to start shortly and I need to open the red to let it breathe a bit.

Regards to all

Wombat.

OK. Well dinner oarty is over and it's preobably best that I leave my other comments 'til the morning. Great red though!. I've pressed the button.

Seeker1 said:


I think I said: "power, control, money".

That's clearly what this is about. Please read Nils-Axel Morner's open letter to President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives.

While the Maldives are in a different Ocean to Tuvalu, I suspect this issue is about the same thing.

Please read it at: http://hallolinden-db.de/files/2009.10. ... er.doc.pdf

Regards to all

Wombat.

Seeker said:

Either way, Carbon tax or Exxon’s profits, it’s the people who will pay. However, there is a difference and that is the way the Alarmists’ ideas are already generating commercial responses that are making many of the World’s people pay disproportionately more and are driving them further into poverty.

Even Britain’s left leaning "Guardian" newspaper reports:

…."Rising food prices have pushed 100m people worldwide below the poverty line, estimates the World Bank, and have sparked riots from Bangladesh to Egypt.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... ableenergy

To the extent that the Alarmists’ fellow travellers are Eugenicists then this outcome, and the higher mortality and morbidity rates that flow from it, is not something they are too concerned about.

Seeker also says:


No. IMO it is not “a good thing, no matter what”. Why? Well, it would only be a good thing if the true price (that is the price at the Bowser or at the meter box minus all government imposts and subsidies) of one joule of energy is the same or better than that of traditional sources of energy.

Finally, Seeker says:

My coloured language may have been a little extravagant, I’ll concede that. However, the notion of ridding the World of C20th economic monopolies presumes that new C21st monopolies will somehow, rather miraculously, not evolve, or if they do, will be somehow different. This is a rather quaint idea IMO, in the real world of competitive markets. I suspect what is more likely to occur is that the old C20th monopolies will be replaced by, or morph into, new C21st green power monopolies, with a significant negative cost/benefit for consumers.

Regards to all

Wombat.

lovuian says:

Thanks lovuian. The map was courtesy of Wikipedia.

So let me see if I've got this right?

The Gulf Stream conveyor slows, or stops, and brings on a new ice age. (you said it's already snowing in Houston)

But hey! Hang on a second. Isn't all that CO2-e in the atmosphere going to produce run-away global warming?

Sounds like that dessert we sometimes see in Asian cuisine - the deep-fried ice cream ball!

Now, how does that work?

Regards to all

Wombat.

I guess the honest answer is I don't know
but I also think the scientists are ignorant too

The Glaciers in Greenland are MELTING at double the rate ...that is fresh water flowing into the Atlantic and Arctic ocean
I don't think CO2 is the only reason...I think HAARP could be part of it too.....Alaska
CO2 is a contributing factor on the acceleration

Most scientists involved in research on this topic agree that the culprit is global warming, melting the icebergs on Greenland and the Arctic icepack and thus flushing cold, fresh water down into the Greenland Sea from the north. When a critical threshold is reached, the climate will suddenly switch to an ice age that could last minimally 700 or so years, and maximally over 100,000 years.

And when might that threshold be reached? Nobody knows - the action of the Great Conveyor Belt in defining ice ages was discovered only in the last decade. Preliminary computer models and scientists willing to speculate suggest the switch could flip as early as next year, or it may be generations from now. It may be wobbling right now, producing the extremes of weather we've seen in the past few years.

What's almost certain is that if nothing is done about global warming, it will happen sooner rather than later.

I think the conveyor belt is moments away from stopping
We had no hurricanes in our gulf this summer and we have snow




Sometimes Mother Earth has to handle these things herself
I went to hear the Dalia Llama speak and his words were quite prophetic
I will share this with you
The lesson mankind learns in this generation will be
What one does in one country will affect everyone in the world

Oh by the way
He said it is a hard lesson to learn but we will learn it or die

In a nutshell, the conveyors physics are very simple.

The cold, dense salty water near the poles which descends by nature into the abysses is replaced at the surface with warm less denser water from more southern latitudes.
This creates a flowing looping current that reaches across hemispheres with the cold running at the depths and the warm above.

When the fresh melt water of glaciers and icecaps alters this processes cold water sinking rates, adjacent landmasses to the current have their climes altered by way of ambient air temperatures derived from air coming off the waters surface.

In some projections of the Gulf Streams rate of decline, this could lead to a much colder UK and Scandinavia.

L,

The El Nino blew the tops off of or diverted away all comers in the Atlantic tropical storm season this year and it was quite the unusual high suppression this time... a mystery in itself.

TCJ

I think you have captured the problem very well when you say…

and…..


The operative phrases being:

1. “In some projections” and,
2. “….a mystery in itself”.

Frankly, who could possibly think that the science is settled? The base-line data sets are very short and sparse in relation to the conveyor. The CRU leak has demonstrated the unacceptably poor quality of the so-called science that has been undertaken.

My question still stands: does the conveyor shut-down trump CO2-e build up, or vice versa? Or are there a couple of Jokers in the pack that science has ignored and, if played, would give a different result?

In the interim, and until these issues are resolved to a level of certainty somewhat better than the current appalling level, the rush by green left socialist governments to enact another tax impost - the Carbon tax – should be vigorously resisted.

Regards to all

Wombat.

The Warmists are on a winner here. And it doesn’t have to show up on their expense account either.

Ah….innovation! These girls know their market.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 4qoGzDBF8Q

Regards to all

Wombat.

Yes the temperature goes up and down just as it did during the Cambrian Period which is long before man let alone man's influence on the climate.

But we can all pay our new taxes when your local Global Government agent (Prime Minister/President etc) signs up to the Copenhagen treaty on a majority vote. Of course to extricate ourselves from it requires a unanimous vote so if any one of the 190 signatories goes against the majority then the treaty stays. Adolf Hitler eat your heart out, your dictatorship was never this complete.

They are going to sign up in the light of FACTS that the senior scientists (also known as crooks fraudsters and racketeers) noticed the average temperature has been going down for 9 years and e-mailed each other on how they were going to frig the readings they were getting because they didn't like them and their grants would expire if they told the truth. They even placed any peer reviewers that would not be sympathetic to their scam onto a list that should be persecuted.

The hacker who spilled the beans should be sainted.

We are going to get the bizarre situation now where we're all hopelessly ensnared in a treaty we can't get out of whilst at the same time sending these people who lied to get us into the treaty to prison for rackeering and refusal to release data to freedom of information demands from other scientists.

Watch these five segments

http://www.infowars.com/lord-monckton-talks-about-climategate-on-the-alex-jones-show/

Warning
It will make you very angry.

Don't get angry, get even.

Regards to all

Wombat.

I just received this from a group I am on at You Tube

Seems another nation who has lived on a island for 4000 years is having to evacuate

The Pacific islands of Kiribati were among the last places to be colonized by humans. But now, because of rising sea levels, they may be among the first to be abandoned

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZLWqa5irog

Sea level rise is happening
this island has been here for at least 4000 years

It's not man made. they've been deliberately altering the data for years.

Get informed

Get informed 2

This is massive. Read the data and get ahead of the inevitable media spin onslaught that will be coming to try to bury this

lovuian says:


The youtube clip looks like more PR/Propaganda to me, lovuian.

Have you read my post of 6 December regarding the Maldives?

In case you didn't I've re-posted the link. After you've read it maybe you could give us a comment on whether you believe the PR/Propaganda or the scientist who has been censored by the President of the Maldives.

Please read it at: http://hallolinden-db.de/files/2009.10. ... er.doc.pdf

A similar situation seems to exist on Kiribati where its Pres. is having a whinge about sea level change. Did you notice in the video that he had constructed a sea wall and that there appeared to be land-fill going in behind the wall? He is trying to extend his land holding onto the rock and reef shelving going into the lagoon IMO. No wonder it's being washed away.

The only difference between this guy and King Canute is that this guy can see dollar signs whereas Canute was a realist. This guy is looking to get his hands on as much of the cash that will flow from the UN when it in turn gets its hands on the river of cash that it thinks will flow from the imposition of a Carbon tax by the various governments around the world.

Don't be fooled, lovuian.

Regards to all

Wombat.

Dueling youtube videos! Let me get my banjo....

The Alex Jones Deception (Part I of 13)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzHtUrQy ... re=related

Climate Denial Crock of the Week --
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Sf_UIQYc20

Oh and as for that arctic ice thing - believe your lying eyes
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... ce-melting

Seeker1 says:


Regarding Seekers1’s 3rd link on the Arctic Summer Ice (the Guardian link):

Did you read it?

This sounds like real objective science doesn’t it?

‘Problems with a radar designed to scan the ice meant the explorers were forced to make several thousand measurements of ice thickness using a handheld drill along their 300 mile route.’

But hang on, Wadhams is not sure his "science" is very good either:

‘Wadhams said the results agreed with other studies of the region, but that the thinning could not simply be blamed on global warming. Recent changes in wind patterns in the Arctic have also contributed, he said, because it has redirected much of the floating ice.’

This corroborates the Met Bureau's realistic grip on things:

Earlier this year, Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office said "apocalyptic predictions" about the course of global warming could mislead the public. She said there was little evidence to support claims that Arctic ice has reached a tipping point and could disappear within a decade or so, as some reports have suggested. "The record-breaking losses in the past couple of years could easily be due to natural fluctuations in the weather, with summer ice increasing again over the next few years," she said.

Unfortunately this is not what the Alarmists want to hear. Have you still got a job Vicky?

Regards to all

Wombat

I'm not making apocalyptic predictions. I leave that for our jabberwockian apocalypticists.

But trends to me look like trends Msr. Wombat.

You'll figure out some way to explain to me this one is not real, I'm sure.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/



I know what that graph says -- and that's a thirty year trend.

Wombat could you put your link up again
It didn't connect for me

I think we all can agree
that the scientists involved have not been truthful

Dueling You tubes
I remember when they were saying in the next 100 years there would be sea level rise and the arctic would be melted

and now all of a sudden wow It is melting faster than we thought
oops
So see I think what the scientists don't want revealed is that they have been fudging the data for quite sometime to hide how severe it really is. Credibility will be lost.

I am not a supporter of the Carbon Tax
and I am worried that Copenhagen is going to try some shenanigans
This will bring up and interesting issue of law ...does Copenhagen trump a country's law
at this point I don't see how it can
but if it is a test...it will be interesting to see what the world will do?
I remember the Kyoto treaty the US didn't sign it
and it was a dismal failure

The Glaciers are melting ....why?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8boXO3Y0UOU
Warmer Ocean temperatures
The Arctic is melting and Antarctica is melting
Australia is watching its coral reefs die

I can not believe this is a El Nino
there is something here more ...like I said CO2 is only part of it


Where is our scientific community? The universities and agencies to watch out for the people
The point I agree with is many are beholden to their grant givers ....and those who donates the most money

You have to ask yourself if a disaster of epic proportions was going to happen
would the government tell you

We had Katrina


and I saw what the government will do for the people

Seeker1 says:


Of course the graph shows a 30 year trend. Why would I wish to argue that it doesn't show that?

I've also agreed with you that the IPCC's GATA shows a 0.74 C º +/- 0.18 C º increase from 1905 to 2005.

Are you sure you're following this Seeker?

Regards to all

Wombat.

lovuian asks:


A pleasure lovuian.

Try this and let me know what you think:

http://hallolinden-db.de/files/2009.10. ... er.doc.pdf

Regards to all

Wombat.