Arcadia Discussion Zone

lovuian says:

But lovuian, you must not have read the last paragraph in the NASA press Release that you posted or, alternatively, you don't understand what it means. When you read that and think about it I'm sure you will see the sleight of hand.

Regards to all

Wombat.

Edited not as a sleight of hand but to correct a slight typo!

lovuian posts

However, his record puts the lie to his claim of being a converted sceptic. For example, do these statements sound like the words of a self-confessed sceptic to you, lovuian?

1. “There is a consensus that global warming is real. There has not been much so far, but it’s going to get much, much worse.” Richard Muller, November 2, 2008;

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/ ... s-the-nex/

2. “Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate.” Richard Muller,December 17, 2003.

http://muller.lbl.gov/TRessays/23-Medie ... rming.html

I think you'll find Muller has always been in the Alarmists' camp - never a sceptic. What his motivation is for now claiming a road to Damascus conversion is something worth investigating a bit further. You might not be surprised at what you find.

Regards to all

Wombat.

Do you mean this paragraph Wombat?
Its the last one
"Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time," says Lora Koenig, a Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data. "But if we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome."




I see your point that this is a 150 year old event

but I see the word BUT

"But if we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome."



So yes I see the slight of hand
it really shows the unsurity

I think the fascinating thing is how fast its occurring and shocking the scientists ...their models can't keep up

Let me tell you Wombat
I don't trust NASA or the Koch brothers
and did you see the idea of Geoengineering is being talked about
and yes it is aerosals being placed into our air

chemtrails ....

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=uk-researchers-to-test-artificial-volcano-for-geoengineering-the-climate
U.K. Researchers to Test "Artificial Volcano" for Geoengineering the Climate

An experiment starting next month in the U.K. will pump water one kilometer into the air to test a new climate-cooling method that eventually could deliver sunlight-reflective sulfate particles into the stratosphere

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/17/us-geoengineers-spray-sun-balloon

US geoengineers to spray sun-reflecting chemicals from balloon

Experiment in New Mexico will try to establish the possibility of cooling the planet by dispersing sulphate aerosols


this is so dangerous
we are living in some crazy times

Did you see the word "if" in the last sentence in that last paragraph?

lovuian also says:
Yep.

Koch funding for the BEST study produced by Muller.

See if you can find the link to BEST through this mob:

http://novim.org

(Hint: What does ST stand for in BEST?)

What business is Novim in do you think?

Good hunting.

Regards to all

Wombat.

Yes I did see the if and I will try my best to research it
but I'm really busy so give me some time

Your reference to Muller, his book and his faux conversion from scepticism was most prescient, lovuian.

Remarkably, just as we start to discuss the BEST study what do we have?

Answer: the publication of a pre-print draft paper that refutes Muller’s BEST conclusions.

Remarkably this new study, hot off the press today, concludes:

Line 64: “These factors, combined with station siting issues, have led to a spurious doubling of U.S. mean temperature trends in the 30 year data period covered by the study from 1979 - 2008.”

You can access the paper here:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress. ... elease.pdf

A spurious doubling of US mean temperature trends. Now that’s what I call an error. A major Koch up.

This is really going to set the cat amongst the pigeons. Who said the science is settled?

Regards to all

Wombat.

Wombat I'm so with you on this
I admit I'm not a Koch fan at all
Yes it is quite a mess and trying to decipher it
is like wading in a quagmire of quick sand

St means Surface Temperature
what is Novim in ?

Novim claims it "initiated and sponsored" Muller BEST study.

http://www.novim.org/projects/berkeley- ... emperature

Novim seems to be into the game of pushing geo-engineering research and solutions to Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. It has a vested interest in the Muller type research (BEST) receiving maximum media coverage to support the Alarmists' beliefs.

However, it received funding from Koch - $150,000 for "educational programs" in 2010. Now that's a turn-up isn't it?

The interesting thing is to consider whether Koch got the answer they believed they might get from Muller's BEST study. Or were they sold a pup by Novim?

Regards to all

Wombat.

This is such an important paper that I'm bringing it forward and adding the URL that gives access to the Figures and Diagrams that are not included at the URL provided above.

Figures and Diagrams are here:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress. ... final1.pdf

This is going to be a great debate. If the authors of this paper are able to sustain their analysis against what will be a ferocious attack from Muller et al, then it will finally give a level of confidence that the science is, at long last, getting its act together.

This is going to be great.

Regards to all

Wombat.

It will be very interesting

I think they will be next checking ocean temperatures

that might be better since there are many factors played with surface temperatures

but Wombat if you see any intersting articles
drop by and put them on

lovuian says:
I agree, lovuian. They'll do whatever they can to shift the focus. And when you see them do that you'll know they've lost the argument; that their fraudulent science has be found out.

However, sea temps are problematic since the ARGO system has only very short-term data and is being fiddled with to try and make it fit the longer-term less accurate data sets.

No. I think they'll try and shift the debate to heat, and say that's what they've been talking about all along. They are already saying in the context of the current 14 years of Global cooling (since 1998) that the heat is in the oceans. The only problem is that they can't find it there in their data sets either. It's missing.

So at the moment we have no Global Warming - but we do have 14 years of Global cooling; we have CO2 increasing without a concomitant increase in the Global Average Temperature Anomaly.

And just this month we had the Australian Antarctic Division reporting that CO2 lags temperature increase. Oops!

“The ice cores reveal a near-synchronous temperature and carbon dioxide increase. If there was a lag at all then it was likely no more than 400 years,” says Joel Pedro from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, in Hobart, who led the study.

http://www.antarctica.gov.au/media/news ... on-dioxide

A 400 year lag in CO2 following temperature increases. This is a further take on the Vostok core data we spoke about previously.

viewtopic.php?p=49601#p49601

Now, just watch them squirm and try to twist this result to mean something else.

Regards to all

Wombat.

“The main thing is just to look at the statistics and see that the change is too large to be natural,” Dr. Hansen said in a 6 August 2012 "New York Times" article on his yet to be peer-reviewed, new “scientific” paper: “Perception of climate change” .

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/scien ... d=tw-share

His colleagues however, don’t agree with him. From the same article:

“Martin P. Hoerling, a researcher with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who studies the causes of weather extremes, said he shared Dr. Hansen’s general concern about global warming. But he has in the past criticized Dr. Hansen for, in his view, exaggerating the connection between global warming and specific weather extremes. In an interview, he said he felt that Dr. Hansen had done so again.

Dr. Hoerling has published research suggesting that the 2010 Russian heat wave was largely a consequence of natural climate variability, and a forthcoming study he carried out on the Texas drought of 2011 also says natural factors were the main cause.

Dr. Hoerling contended that Dr. Hansen’s new paper confuses drought, caused primarily by a lack of rainfall, with heat waves.

“This isn’t a serious science paper,” Dr. Hoerling said. “It’s mainly about perception, as indicated by the paper’s title. Perception is not a science.”

Indeed perception is not a science. But then, one has to wonder whether James Hansen is a scientist in the true sense of the word as well.

Regards to all

Wombat.

Thanks Wombat
It is fascinating to watch the science community isn't it

Lovuian, you’ll be interested in this.


1930s dust storm.

The USA record books show that the hottest years of the 20th century in the USA were during the 1930s. These were known as the “Dust Bowl” years and were far worse than anything you are seeing today.

The graph below was presented last week (August 1, 2012) to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee by Professor John R. Christy, Director of Earth System Science Centre, Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville.



Note that almost all state extreme temperature records were set in the 1930s.

http://pjmedia.com/blog/climate-catastr ... epage=true

What does that say about the current hot temperatures that you've been experiencing?

Regards to all

Wombat

It could be cyclical
as your chart is indicating
Corn prices are going to sky rocket and we just sold millions last year to China
so a shortage is coming....It is a repeat of the 1930 Depression times ....are we in a Depression
yes

Here is the latest report coming from the Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/aug/11/arctic-sea-ice-vanishing?newsfeed=true

Rate of arctic summer sea ice loss is 50% higher than predicted

New satellite images show polar ice coverage dwindling in extent and thickness

"Preliminary analysis of our data indicates that the rate of loss of sea ice volume in summer in the Arctic may be far larger than we had previously suspected," said Dr Seymour Laxon, of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London (UCL), where CryoSat-2 data is being analysed. "Very soon we may experience the iconic moment when, one day in the summer, we look at satellite images and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water."

The consequences of losing the Arctic's ice coverage, even for only part of the year, could be profound. Without the cap's white brilliance to reflect sunlight back into space, the region will heat up even more than at present. As a result, ocean temperatures will rise and methane deposits on the ocean floor could melt, evaporate and bubble into the atmosphere. Scientists have recently reported evidence that methane plumes are now appearing in many areas. Methane is a particularly powerful greenhouse gas and rising levels of it in the atmosphere are only likely to accelerate global warming. And with the disappearance of sea ice around the shores of Greenland, its glaciers could melt faster and raise sea levels even more rapidly than at present.

Professor Chris Rapley of UCL said: "With the temperature gradient between the Arctic and equator dropping, as is happening now, it is also possible that the jet stream in the upper atmosphere could become more unstable. That could mean increasing volatility in weather in lower latitudes, similar to that experienced this year."



I think the Northwest Passage opened this year
and a Artic Cyclone has past for 5 days last week thinning the ice even more

We live in interesting times

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/asi-2012-update-9-stormy-weather.html

What we got, was a huge cyclone in the 963 hPa range. If you've missed this mega-storm despite all the news stories in the mainstream media (yes, I'm being sarcastic), you can check out the Arctic storms category and see the day-to-day reports here on the ASI blog. Flash melting usually takes place from one sea ice concentration map to the next. This time it's days in a row and it still isn't over yet.

This highly unusual summer storm has massacred all that weak ice on the Pacific side and even caused a large swathe of ice floes to detach itself from the main ice pack. The Stronghold I wrote about a month ago is no more. Trend lines have dropped precipitously on every single sea ice extent and area graph out there.


the Artic Cyclone promotes even faster melting

Whales navigate Northwest Passage for first time in thousands of years

Wombat proof that is cyclical
Bowhead whales have navigated the Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans for what could be the first time in nearly 10,000 years.

Researchers from the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources used satellite tracking to monitor the movements of the whales - and found that, last year, whales from both oceans entered the passage to reach an area called Viscount Melville Sound.

Bones found on beaches in the region suggest that the last time the whales were here was around 10,000 years ago.

It was previously thought that the sea ice in the Northwest Passage was too impenetrable even for Bowhead whales, which are known for their ability to navigate ice-bound seas.

The team says the discovery has huge implications for the ecology of marine life in the region.

"[The findings] are perhaps an early sign that other marine organisms have begun exchanges between the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans across the Arctic," they say.

http://www.tgdaily.com/sustainability-features/58683-whales-navigate-northwest-passage-for-first-time-in-thousands-of-years

Soon it will be humans

10,000 years ago ....the artic ice was melted

lovuian says:
However, you need to read the first paragraph of the Guardian article you posted the link to, and understand what it says. Here it is:

"Sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing at a far greater rate than previously expected, according to data from the first purpose-built satellite launched to study the thickness of the Earth's polar caps."

Now: focus on "Preliminary analysis". What does preliminary mean?

Answer: it means it's too early to tell.

Then focus on "first purpose built satellite". When was it launched?

Answer: "CryoSat was launched in 2010 to measure sea-ice thickness in the Arctic..."

http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEM037ZWD2H_LPcryosat_0.html

Launched in 2010. Amazing.

That gives just two summers' worth of data. How do you draw any conclusion based on just two summers' worth of data?

Edited to add this extract:

"... However, Laxon urged caution, saying: "First, this is based on preliminary studies of CryoSat figures, so we should take care before rushing to conclusions. In addition, the current rate of ice volume decline could change." Nevertheless, experts say computer models indicate rates of ice volume decline are only likely to increase over the next decade."

...so that we have a record of the computer models' predictions to look at in the years ahead.

Regards to all

Wombat.

And:
See that word "may"?

The Malthusians have been using that word from the day they started. They've never been right yet.

Regards to all

Wombat.

like you said it is cyclical perhaps seen 10,000 years ago

thanks for the update on the satellite good to know

Only 2% of Canadians deny climate change, suggests poll

Prairie respondents least likely to believe climate change occurring due to human activity

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2012/08/15/calgary-climate-change-web-poll.html